FOMC minutes are behind us. Jobless claims just dropped showing a slight beat vs predictions. I wouldn’t read to much into this one.

Markets finally broke out of that pennant we were watching last week with a fakeout to the upside. We’ll see how low we go but we should be hitting support around 7630-7650. Risk-on sectors are down pre-market with defensive sectors also down to neutral alluding to some chop today.

I don’t think we get a huge sell off, at least not yet. There are few rotations we can watch for clues. The first and my favorite is the XLY/XLP. We’re not seeing money run from XLY into XLP right now. If that curve starts to turn bearish then we should be worried but for now i think its a buy the dip scenario. You can see when its overlaid with SPY, they are somewhat correlated.

You can see below that it usually gives us a little bit of a warning before pulling the rug on the broader market. Blu e is SPY chart.

We’re not there yet until se see some bigger downside movement.

No changes to positions yesterday aside from a reduction in runners.

Portfolio Update

We currently have

1. MRNA runners (calls)

2. META runners (puts)

3. GOOG shares (runners) - short postion

4. HOOD leaps

5. DKNG shares

6. RKLB shares.

Depending on price action I may look to add some positions today.

I need to brag a bit this morning. We entered MRNA calls around August 5th at a price of $59.31. We closed those except for some runners. Last night, MRNA announced huge news of a cancer vaccine, and we are up to a price $123.17 per share.

HUGE Win! Congrats to those that entered!

On the market news for the day. We have FOMC minutes today at 2:00pm. We may get a little chop until then. Jobless claims drop tomorrow morning. Risk on sectors are up pre-market as well as defensive sectors - pointing to a battle of bulls vs bears today.

Not much else to add.

Trades yesterday:

Our runners were stopped out. We had a nice win with this name. We’ve been short META since Monday.

We’ve absolutely crushed this name.

Ill be looking to add some positions today.

Happy Monday, and welcome back to another week of trading. This week should be relatively quiet from a data perspective. We have PPI / CPI behind us. Remember we are cooling slightly on those two values and the economy is shedding jobs. The next fed meeting will be interesting. The data is starting to point to a need to reduce rates - usually bullish for markets. As of right now, I'm betting they hold rates steady at the next meeting.

Data drops this week include FOMC minutes Wednesday. Not super critical but could cause some hesitation/chop in the markets. Jobless claims on Thursday, also not a huge one.

This morning, risk on sectors are up slightly or neutral, while defensive sectors are mostly down. Probabilities favor some decent price movement today.

I’m still watching this bullish pendant that tried to breakout last week. We are currently retesting the breakout (resistance) and if it holds, that will be a nice support line we can trade from.

Last Friday, we had some great plays:

We took a long position in TSLA for some nice change. We entered calls around 5.85 and sold for 6.25. Our runners were stopped out that same day.

AMD was a MONSTER for us. We got in under $500 and its up to $514 dollar this morning. Our calls on this name went 63%. We still have risk free runners open on this one.

Retail sales just dropped posting a -0.6% contraction. While lower retail sales is bad, it does continue to push the FED into a corner. Consensus has been that they would hold rates steady or maybe even an increase. The problem they have now is we have shrinking retail sales, shrinking jobs, and inflation is now getting closer and closer to target.

Its not a great picture for us as a whole, but it does paint a bullish picture as the FED is now going to have to shift to a more dovish stance and think about reducing rates.

For today session, as always, we need to keep Iran war in mind before going ultra bullish. GLD is up this morning. Risk on sectors are neetral / bullish. Defensive sectors are mixed.

I would like to see a continuation of the breakout yesterday but again, we need to be cautious about going full bull into the weekend and with us into all time high territory. This is usually when retail traders get jaded and lose all their profits.

No changes to positions yesterday, we have alot of runners absolutely crushing it. I may look to add a few more today.

HOOD , MRNA, NNE - all have paid out nicely - currently in risk-free runners in these.

As predicted, fairly choppy day yesterday. PPI just dropped and the report was cooler than feared. The big positive was the -0.8% decline in goods prices, suggesting some easing in pipeline inflation pressure. PPI usually leads CPI by a few months.

This paints anther bullish picture longer term as it gives more room for the FED to ease interest rates.

This morning risk-on sectors are mixed with almost all defensive sectors up pre-market. Gold is also down pre market. This is hard to interpret but my opinion is that traders are rotating away from inflation hedges and waiting for tomorrow’s retail sales report before making a larger directional bet.

Likely another day chop as we continue to fill out this bullish pennant. Be careful playing the breakout today if we get it - manage your stops carefully.

No new positions opened up yesterday.

CPI just dropped basically at expectations so not hot enough to panic. PPI is on deck next and then retail sales. With CPI behind us, coming in at expectations we might get a risk-on scenario. To paint the picture, we have core inflation coming in at about 3% and the economy is losing a massive amount of jobs per last weeks print. I am thinking the FED and investors are re-considering the interest rates and puts the odds of lowering / holding much higher than a hike. This is a bullish scenario. The caveat to all this is the war in Iran right now and oil prices.

Risk on sectors are neutral to bullish this morning and defensive sectors are also mixed potentially pointing to another choppy day.

Our bullish pennant in ES is still filling out. Which I am watching much closer now. You can take the initial breakout or wait for the re-test. The re-test has higher odds of not getting stopped out but you also may never get the retest.

Positions yesterday:

MRNA - We closed majority of the position and were in runners now with breakeven SL. This was a nice trade.

IREN - we entered calls and we are up nicely this morning on these. We’ll look to close those out at the open and keep some runners going.

Yesterday we shorted GOOG at $351 and are now in runners for a nice ~$9 dollar run in that name.

We shorted AMD and were stopped out.

PDD - our runners hit our SL and we’re fully out.

We’ll look to enter a few more trades today.

Markets have been coiling for the past few days, watch for a big breakout soon.

Most of the risk-on sectors are up just slightly this morning and the defensive sectors are break-even to down slightly. Gold is also down a bit. With that, my bias today is a bit more chop until CPI and PPI data drops.

We do have a bullish pennant forming on the daily ES chart, so ill be watching that for breakout. How to trade it is below but basically just take the breakout or wait for a retest of the breakout.

We have numerous earnings after the bell today which could add to a choppy day as investors wait to see the results of those as well.

• Lumentum Holdings (LITE), estimated EPS $2.97

• CoreWeave (CRWV), estimated EPS-$1.47

• Franco-Nevada (FNV), estimated EPS $1.97

• Super Micro Computer (SMCI), estimated EPS $0.96

• Quantinuum (QNT), estimated EPS-$0.26

• Silicon Laboratories (SLAB), estimated EPS $0.69

• CAVA Group (CAVA), estimated EPS $0.18

• H&R Block (HRB), estimated EPS $2.21

• Firefly Aerospace (FLY), estimated EPS-$0.53

No changes to port yesterday. I have a few names i’ll be watching and potentially starting positions in.

Current positions, if we get a another pop in $MRNA, we’ll look to close out the majority of the position and leave our runners as its almost hit our target. runners also looking great. Leaving those open - risk free

The risk-positive sectors are up before the market opens, whereas the defensive sectors are either steady or have declined. That said, you should be cautious about jumping right away to a full bull position. It is often on Fridays that President Trump tends to escalate geopolitical tensions with Iran after the market closes, only for those tensions to be resolved before Monday.

This has been a recurring pattern until it isn’t.

It is clear that investors have noticed this trend and are taking advantage of it by buying gold and gold mining stocks as a weekend hedge. This is entirely reasonable considering the current climate, as they are adding an extra layer of protection.

The July jobs report was a pretty large shock to the downside, showing a loss of 23,000 jobs instead of the expected 85,000 gain. In my POV, this is bullish as it now puts pressure on FED to lower rates. Markets should re-price this news today.

Today’s Plan:

From a trading point of view, it is important to remain disciplined and to balance our bullish expectations with risk management for the weekend. With the weak job report and the wider risk-on sectors are showing strength, I do plan to set up a few positions today.

Yesterdays Recap:

No changes to positions.

After this week’s strong move higher, I’m expecting another session focused on balance rather than aggressive upside. Looking at sector performance, defensive areas are catching bids while risk-on sectors are mixed. Combined with gold’s strong move higher yesterday, that suggests people are adding a layer of protection ahead of tomorrow’s jobs report rather than making a large bullish bet. This setup increases the likelihood of a balancing day, or potentially a modest pullback, as markets digest recent gains.

The biggest weakness pre-market is coming from semiconductors, with Western Digital, SanDisk, AMD, Micron, and other chip names under pressure despite generally solid earnings and guidance. Meanwhile, many large-cap leaders remain relatively stable. This points more toward sector rotation than broad market weakness.

Earnings after the bell:

Airbnb ($ABNB)

Lyft ($LYFT)

Cloudflare ($NET)

Before the open:

Warner Bros. Discovery ($WBD)

From a trading perspective, this is another day to stay disciplined. After multiple sessions of strong index expansion, there is no need to chase extended names. Let price come into support, respect resistance levels, and focus on quality setups rather than forcing trades.

End of Day Recap

$GTLB
✅ +21% on the majority of the position
✅ Remaining runners stopped yesterday

$INTC
✅ Trimmed 1/3 at 6.15 and another 1/3 at 6.25
✅ Remaining runners stopped yesterday

$PDD
✅ Trimmed 1/3 at $91.40
✅ Remaining 2/3 still working

❌ Stopped at 2.22 for -15%

Opened 2 new positions yesterday.

The S&P 500 has posted two huge days of expansion and pushed to fresh all-time highs. With that, I am expecting balancing today in the markets. Be especially careful if you are day trading, these are the days most people lose money. After a move like this, direction becomes less predictable, so we’ll continue using Fibonacci extensions and key technical levels to identify potential resistance areas as the market digests recent gains.

If you look at sector performance pre-market, both defensive and risk-on sectors are trading higher. To me, that’s a sign of a market searching for balance rather than making a strong directional bet. Investors are still putting money to work, but they’re also rotating into areas that typically hold up better if volatility returns. That’s another reason I’m expecting a more balanced session rather than a straight continuation higher.

On the economic side, ADP Employment Change came in at 44K vs. 65K expected, adding another data point ahead of Friday’s jobs report.

We also still have several large earnings reports on deck, including Disney ($DIS), Uber ($UBER), Shopify ($SHOP), CVS ($CVS), Eli Lilly ($LLY), AppLovin ($APP), DoorDash ($DASH), MercadoLibre ($MELI), and Occidental Petroleum ($OXY), so there are plenty of potential catalysts left this week.

From the portfolio side, the only position we closed yesterday was a portion of our $INTC calls for a solid profit. We’ll look to trim a few more positions today where it makes sense and should be getting a few more positions into a risk-free runner stage, allowing those positions to continue working for us.

As always, don’t feel the need to force trades after a large directional move. Let the market come to you.

The market’s recent chop has been a blessing for premium sellers. We let the thesis play out this week, specifically capitalizing on the volatility contraction in the fintech space.

Our standout trade was our Covered Call on SOFI, where we captured $204.00 per contract in profit as the stock consolidated, allowing the premium to decay perfectly into our hands. Additionally, we closed a Cash Secured Put on AMDL for a $106.00 gain per contract, proving that patience with high-beta names pays off when you respect technical support levels.

With some nice realized gains locked in across SOFI, AMDL, and a quick scalp on TSLA, we are heading into the FOMC meeting with cash on the sidelines and a roster of carefully managed open positions.

2. The Macro Synthesis

We are witnessing a fascinating conflict: Price Action is Bullish, but Sector Rotation is Defensive.

The Regime: Bullish Stability

The S&P 500 (SPX) is trading firmly above its 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), currently near 6950. The index remains above the 20-day SMA, confirming that the primary trend is up. However, the internal engine is sputtering.

The Engine: A Warning in the Ratios

• Defensive Rotation (XLY/XLP): The ratio of Consumer Discretionary to Staples is falling sharply, currently sitting at ~1.48 after peaking near 1.60.

Interpretation: Despite the S&P 500 being near highs, capital is rotating out of aggressive cyclical stocks (Tesla, Amazon) and into defensive staples (Pepsi, Walmart). This is a classic risk-off divergence often seen before a correction.

• Defensive Leadership (XLU & XLV): Confirming this defensive posture, both Utilities (XLU) and Healthcare (XLV) are showing strong uptrends. Wall Street is hiding in safety.

• The Broadening (QQQ/IWM): On a positive note, the QQQ/IWM ratio is falling to ~2.37. Small caps (IWM) are outperforming Tech, suggesting the rally is broadening, even if it is tilting defensive.

The Headwinds: Pre-Fed Jitters

• 10-Year Yield (TNX): Stabilizing at 4.215% . If this spikes above 4.30% post-FOMC, expect pressure on our longer-duration tech holdings (like TQQQ and U).

• Fear & Greed: The index is at 55 (Neutral) . This is the sweet spot, markets are neither euphoric (prone to crashes) nor panicking. It supports a buy the dip bias.

• Volatility (VIX): Sitting at 16.15. This is elevated but not panic-inducing. It implies an expected daily move of roughly 1%, which aligns with pre-Fed anxiety.

Action: Caution & Tight Stops

The divergence between a rising S&P 500 and a falling XLY/XLP ratio is a ‘look under the hood’ warning.

• Verdict: We are sitting on our hands.

• Strategy: We are not adding aggressive long delta here. We will wait for the FOMC dust to settle. If the defensive rotation continues, we will look to close profitable runners rather than open new risk. While the equity engine is humming, the bond market is flashing a yellow light.

The Week Ahead: FOMC is the Main Event

Do you think the Fed will surprise us with a hawkish tone? I’m reading every reply.

• Wednesday, Jan 28 (2:00 PM EST): FOMC Interest Rate Decision & Press Conference.

  • Impact: The market expects rates to hold steady. The key will be Chair Powell’s tone regarding the last mile of inflation. A hawkish surprise could send yields up and stocks down.

  • Action: Given the binary risk of the FOMC meeting, our bias is to Buy Dips if the S&P 500 tests the 50-day SMA (~6840) later in the week, provided the structural bullish trend remains intact.

Do you think the Fed will surprise us with a hawkish tone? I’m reading every reply.

Leave a comment

3. Portfolio Summary

We are currently managing a diverse mix of Covered Calls (income generation) and Cash Secured Puts (bullish entry targets).

All trades are live in the chat - make sure to follow along there!

Note: I am currently building out the 'Premium Alert' infrastructure. If you want to lock in your access to real-time SMS/Email trade alerts when we officially launch the paid tier, you can Pledge a Subscription now. You won't be charged until we go live, but it secures your spot.

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Disclaimer: This report is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. All trades involve risk.

We just wrapped up the first real trading week of 2026 and the market is already giving us plenty to work with. The holiday cobwebs are gone and volatility is creeping back in which is exactly what we want as premium sellers.

This week we locked in some solid wins on names like LMND and TQQQ while planting seeds for the next leg up in Tesla and AppLovin. We also have a heavy week of data ahead so let’s get straight into the details.

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Trade Review

Cash Secured Puts

• PTIR We sold the 22.45 strike puts for 2.30 with a February 20 expiration. The stock was rejected at the 50 SMA. The option is currently trading at 1.93 and we have a limit order set to close at 1.15

  

• RIVN We sold the 18.00 strike puts for 1.01 with a February 20 expiration. It is currently trading at 1.23. We have plenty of time left on this trade with a breakeven price of 16.99.

• U We sold the 42.00 strike puts for 2.38. It is currently trading at 2.68. I really like Unity long term and we have plenty of duration left for this thesis to play out.

Share Accumulation and Active Trades

• APP We are long shares with the stock currently in bounce mode after our CSPIndicator signaled seller exhaustion. We will take the majority of shares off at the 50 SMA or the middle of the regression channel.

  

• TSLA We are long shares and looking for a continuation of the trend. Our first price target is 455. We will exit the majority of the position there and immediately move our Stop Loss to breakeven.

  

• WYNN We entered a new position here and are currently sitting at breakeven on the trade.

Covered Call Management

• SOFI We were assigned at 28 and sold the 29 Calls expiring January 23.

• ETHA We were assigned (long ago) at 31 and sold 31 and 32 Calls expiring in February and March to lower our cost basis.

  Share

Trades Closed and Managed

• LMND This was a textbook trade. We entered right at the bottom when the CSPIndicator signaled that selling pressure was exhausted. The stock responded with a nice bounce reaching 21% at its peak so far. We closed the 65 puts early to secure the premium of $161 realized.

  

• MP Similar to LMND we entered when the CSPIndicator flashed that sellers were tired. We took a large chunk of the position off after a 9% run up. We are holding runners which are currently up 18%. Stops are set to breakeven so this trade is now risk free.

  

• TQQQ Closed the 50 strike puts for a solid profit of 119 realized.

• PEP We tried to play the bounce here but our timing looked a little early. Once price broke below the 200 SMA we respected our rules and exited immediately for a scratch loss.

  

Watchlist and Potential Setups

We are stalking several names that are setting up for potential entries.

• AAPL Apple continues to sell. We got an indication from the CSPIndicator but we passed on this trade because the price is still showing heavy selling pressure and has not confirmed a reversal yet. We are watching for a curl here and may enter long

  

• HPE This is currently on the watchlist for a bounce with elevated volatility. A Cash Secured Put is the leading candidate for this name

  

• CSX We see the same setup here. The CSPIndicator shows sellers are drying up with a nice bounce at the 50 SMA

  

• FSLR Implied volatility is elevated on this name which makes the premiums attractive

  

• Other Names We are watching SITM and SNDK which is currently breaking out again

  

Macro Overview

Market Technicals

The broader market remains in a strong uptrend though we are seeing some consolidation near psychological levels.

• S&P 500 The index is currently trading around 6966 just shy of the massive 7000 level. The daily chart shows a clear up and to the right structure though the recent candles suggest some hesitation as we breach all time highs. We are watching for a potential breakout above 7000 or a retest of lower support levels to build liquidity

  

• Nasdaq 100 Tech continues to lead with the QQQ trading near 626. Similar to the SPX the trend is robust but the price action has been choppy in recent sessions. We need to see sustained volume to push through these levels

  

The Week Ahead

This is a heavy week for economic data which could act as a catalyst for the next leg of the move.

• Tuesday CPI Data This is the main event of the week. Core CPI Year Over Year is forecast at 2.6% while the headline CPI is expected to come in at 2.7%. The market will be watching closely to see if inflation continues its trend or cools further.

• Wednesday PPI and Retail Sales We get the Producer Price Index which gives us a look at wholesale inflation. Retail Sales will also be released which will give us insight into the strength of the consumer heading into the new year.

• Fed Speakers There is a parade of Fed officials speaking this week including Tom Barkin on Monday and Thursday and John Williams on Wednesday. Their comments will be parsed for any shifts in monetary policy expectations.

Earnings Season Begins

We are officially kicking off Q4 earnings season. The spotlight will be on the major financials.

• The Big Banks JPMorgan Chase Bank of America Wells Fargo and Citigroup are all expected to report. Their guidance will set the tone for the rest of the market particularly regarding the health of the consumer and loan demand.

• Other Notables We are also watching for reports from Delta Air Lines which often gives us an early read on the travel and leisure sector.

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  ---

Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. All trades are for educational purposes only.

While the long-term thesis is a supply glut (eventually stabilizing prices), the short-term reality is chaos. Oil is likely to gap up on uncertainty regarding the transition and security of the Orinoco Belt.

The Protocol: We will sit on our hands for the first 24-48 hours of trading. Let the algorithms fight over the headlines; we will trade the reactions.

🟢 The Scoreboard: Validating the Indicator

Before we get to the new targets, let’s look at the scoreboard. The CSPIndicator has been printing money while the street chases headlines.

• $BABA (Alibaba): ✅ Win. We entered Commons when the indicator flashed green on the daily. The trend reversal is confirmed. (Alerted on Twitter).

  

• $MMM (3M): ✅ Win. Entry signal triggered, we bought Commons. The industrial rotation is favoring us.

  

• $MP (MP Materials): 🚀 Up 9% since our entry signal. The rare earth trade is front-running the supply chain fears.

  

• $WYNN (Wynn Resorts): ✅ Win. A textbook bounce from our entry zone

• $LMND (Lemonade): 💰 Premium Captured. We sold a Cash Secured Put (CSP) last week. Volatility crushed, we kept the income.

  

Now, the tool is lighting up again. $PLTR, $CSCO, , and $CRSP are flashing ‘Entry Signals’, meaning sellers are finally exhausted.

The Entry Matrix: Choosing Your Weapon

But here is where the amateur fails: They see a buy signal and default to buying shares. Wrong. The instrument must match the volatility environment.

Here is the logic I use on when to deploy Commons, LEAPS, or CSPs for this week’s watchlist.

We do not just buy stocks. We rent risk, we lease upside, or we acquire equity, depending on the math.

1. Cash Secured Puts (CSPs)

• The Setup: High Implied Volatility (IV), Bearish-to-Neutral short-term sentiment, “Falling Knife” chart.

• The Logic: When a stock like $PLTR or $CRSP sells off aggressively, fear spikes. Premiums become expensive. We don’t want to buy shares today and watch them drop another 5%.

• The Play: We sell an Out-of-the-Money (OTM) Put at the support level shown on our charts.

• The Math: If the stock keeps dropping to our strike, we get assigned shares at a massive discount (Cost Basis = Strike - Premium). If it bounces (like $WYNN did), we keep the cash instantly.

2. LEAPS (Long-Term Equity Anticipation Securities)

• The Setup: Low Implied Volatility (Boring), High Conviction Bullishness, Capital Efficiency needed.

• The Logic: You love the chart, but you don’t want to tie up $20,000. You buy a Deep-In-The-Money (ITM) Call (0.80 Delta) expiring in 12+ months.

• The Play: Perfect for a name like $IBM. It moves slowly.

• The Trap: Never buy LEAPS on high volatility (like $PLTR right now). When the fear subsides, the value of your option drops even if the stock price stays the same (IV Crush).

3. Commons (”The Pure Play”)

• The Setup: Dividend Capture, Low Volatility, or “Forever Hold” / Unsure on timeline.

• The Logic: Sometimes leverage isn’t worth the cost. If a stock pays a healthy dividend and has low volatility, option premiums (CSPs) are too cheap to be worth the risk, and LEAPS carry too much time-decay drag.

• The Play: $CSCO. It’s a boring, dividend-paying tank. Just buy the shares when the indicator flashes green to lock in the yield.

The Watchlist for the Week

Here is the execution plan for the new signals based on the charts you provided.

$PLTR (Palantir Technologies)

• Signal: Seller Exhaustion after a pullback.

• The Instrument: Cash Secured Puts (Weekly/Monthly).

• Lab Logic: Retail sentiment on Palantir is emotional. The sell-off spikes premiums. Do not buy Commons yet; let the premium pay you to wait for the absolute bottom. Target the support zones identified by the indicator.

  

$CRSP (CRISPR Therapeutics)

• Signal: Oversold bounce underway

• The Instrument: Aggressive CSPs.

• Lab Logic: Biotech is high beta. Buying LEAPS here is dangerous due to IV crush risk. Sell Puts at the “panic” levels below the current price. If you get assigned, you own a high-growth asset at a 2024 price level.

  

$CSCO (Cisco Systems)

• Signal: Stabilization at support.

• The Instrument: Commons.

• Lab Logic: The premiums on Cisco puts are likely negligible. The stock doesn’t move fast enough to justify LEAPS. Buy the Commons, collect the dividend, and wait for the rotation back into legacy tech.

  

$IBM (IBM)

• Signal: Trend continuation potential.

• The Instrument: LEAPS (Stock Replacement).

• Lab Logic: IBM is currently flashing a setup where capital efficiency matters. If IV is low (check the percentile), a Jan 2027 Deep ITM Call gives you the exposure of 100 shares for a fraction of the cost, freeing up capital for more CSPs on volatile names like $MP.

  

⚠️ Next Step for You

As always, Ill be alerting my entries here on substack. If you want enter at your own pace, make sure you check the Implied Volatility Percentile (IV Rank) on $IBM and $PLTR specifically.

1. If $PLTR IV Rank > 50%: Sell Puts.

2. If $IBM IV Rank < 30%: Buy LEAPS.

The Venezuela situation will create noise tomorrow morning. Ignore the noise. Trust the exhaustion signals.

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And the data told me something I didn’t want to hear: I’ve been leaving money on the table…but not in the way you think.

For a long time, the standard advice for the Wheel Strategy (selling cash-secured puts and covered calls) has been to play it safe. Pick boring dividend stocks, sell low-delta puts, and treat it like a bond replacement. It’s safe, it’s comfortable, and quite frankly, it’s slow.

After hundreds of hours of backtesting and reviewing my own 2025 logs, I’m making a pivot for 2026. I am shifting the CSP Lab portfolio from a passive income mindset to a Higher-Octane Framework.

Here is the educational breakdown of how I’m changing my approach in the new year, and why the standard advice might be holding you back.

1. The Trap of IV Rank

If you read any options textbook, it tells you to sell premium when IV Rank is high. The logic is that you want to sell when volatility is elevated relative to the past year.

I’m throwing that metric out in 2026.

Here is the problem: A boring utility stock might have an IV Rank of 80%, but because it never moves, the actual premium you get is pennies. Meanwhile, a high-growth tech stock might have a “low” IV Rank of 20%, but because the stock is naturally volatile, the premium is massive.

For 2026, I am focusing on Absolute Volatility. I don’t care where volatility is compared to last year; I care if the premium dollars I collect today are enough to compensate me for the risk. We are looking for the Variance Risk Premium - where the market’s fear is overpriced relative to what the stock actually does.

2. Hunting High-Octane Quality

The biggest change to the portfolio will be asset selection.

The old way was to wheel Dividend Aristocrats. The problem is that these stocks have such low beta (volatility) that you have to use massive leverage to get decent returns.

The new plan targets Tier 2 Growth. These are companies that are:

• Profitable (P/E > 0)

• Growing sales (20%+ Year-over-Year)

• Institutionally owned

We want stocks that have good volatility, movement driven by earnings growth and innovation, not ‘bad volatility’ driven by bankruptcy risk. This allows us to capture much richer premiums without touching garbage meme stocks. Most importantly, we want names where institutional money is involved not retail meme stocks.

3. Velocity Over Duration

This is the hardest habit to break. When you sell a put and see a nice profit, the temptation is to hold it until expiration to squeeze out every last cent.

The math says this is wrong.

In 2026, I am religiously following the 50% Rule. If I sell a put for $2.00, I am buying it back at $1.00. Period.

The first 50% of profit usually comes quickly. The last 50% takes forever. By closing early, we free up our buying power to reload into a new trade, which allows us to compound returns faster. It’s about Capital Velocity, cycling the same dollar through the market multiple times a month rather than parking it for 45 days.

We are even introducing a Turbo Exit protocol: if we hit 25% profit in under 48 hours, we take the money and run.

4. The ‘Falling Knife’ Protection

The risk with this more aggressive strategy is catching a falling knife, selling puts on a growth stock that is crashing.

To fix this, I’ve developed a new technical entry protocol. I’m not just blindly selling on red days anymore. I’m using a specific combination of momentum indicators (looking at when selling pressure exhausts itself) to time our entries.

We want to sell the put when the panic is stabilizing, not when it’s accelerating.

5. From the Lab: The New Proprietary Indicator

We discussed using RSI above to time entries. That is the standard textbook approach. But if you know CSP Lab, you know standard isn’t enough for the goals we have in 2026.

Over the last few months, I have logged hundreds of hours of refinement and backtesting to build something better. I needed a tool that filtered out the noise and alerted me only when the probability of a reversal was mathematically significant, essentially, a ‘green light’ for selling puts when everyone else is panic selling.

The result is a custom indicator that is now the backbone of my High-Octane entry system.

The Unexpected Bonus: Long Call-Outs While stress-testing this indicator for put-selling entries, I discovered a massive side benefit: It is incredibly accurate at spotting bottoming formations for long stock positions.

Because the data is too good to ignore, I am expanding the CSP Lab mandate slightly for 2026. Our core focus remains selling premium. However, when my custom indicator flashes a perfect “A+ Setup” for a long stock entry with exceptional reward-to-risk, I will be sharing those call-outs in the newsletter.

Our core focus remains selling premium. However, when my custom indicator flashes a perfect ‘A+ Setup’ for a long stock entry with exceptional reward-to-risk, I will be sharing those call-outs in the newsletter going forward.

Here is a look at the indicator in action:

On this Intel (INTC) chart, notice how the indicator ignored the minor noise but fired a "Wheel Entry" signal right at the capitulation point, catching the exact bottom before the reversal.

We saw the same behavior on Nu Holdings (NU). The signal identified the exhaustion of selling pressure, providing a low-risk entry for both a Short Put or a Long Stock position.

I’ll be blunt—this indicator is simply too powerful to remain free forever. The edge it provides is significant, and eventually, this will likely become a paid-tier exclusive.

But for now, I am keeping it free. If you are a subscriber and have Substack Chat alerts enabled, you will get these signals in real-time as we head into 2026. Enjoy it while it lasts!

The 2026 Outlook

I’m not abandoning the core mechanics of the Wheel, we are still selling 30-45 DTE puts, and we are still managing risk. But we are taking the training wheels off.

I have built a new screener to find these ‘High-Octane’ setups, and I’ll be sharing the first batch of tickers that fit this new criteria next week.

Enjoy the rest of the holiday break. We have work to do in January.

— CSP Lab

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We are looking at a binary volatility environment. The market will either melt up on Goldilocks data (Soft Landing confirmed) or flush violently on Stagflation fears (Hot CPI + Weak Jobs). The rotation out of crowded Tech trades and into real-economy hedges has already begun.

Here is the playbook for the chaos ahead.

Category 1: The Earnings Gauntlet

Volatility is underpriced in these names given the macro backdrop.

1. $MU (Micron) – Reporting Tuesday PM. The AI trade has been quiet; if guidance flatlines, the semi-complex will violently unwind. Sell calls into the print if IV spikes >70%

   

2. $FDX (FedEx) – Reporting Thursday PM. The ultimate recession barometer. Watch for “macro weakness” commentary to drag the Industrials (XLI) down with it.

3. $NKE (Nike) – Reporting Thursday PM. A “show me” quarter. Sentiment is so bearish that any pulse of life in China sales could trigger a squeeze; otherwise, $70 is the magnet.

4. $LEN (Lennar) – Reporting Tuesday PM. Reporting exactly when the Home Builder Confidence index drops. If rates look like they’ll be unchanged after CPI, this name is the easiest short on the board.

5. $ACN (Accenture) – Reporting Thursday AM. The consulting slowdown is real. Use this as a proxy for enterprise spending; a miss here signals Corporate Austerity for 2026.

6. $DRI (Darden) – Reporting Thursday AM. The US consumer is trading down. If Olive Garden traffic is weak, the consumer discretionary sector ($XLY) is in trouble.

7. $GIS (General Mills) – Reporting Wednesday AM. The safest place to hide? Maybe. If the market pukes on NFP, money flows here for the dividend yield.

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Category 2: High Octane & Beta

Tickers that will move 2x-3x the speed of the S&P 500 this week.

8. $NVDA (Nvidia) – Sympathy play for Micron ($MU). If MU misses, NVDA dips. If MU beats, NVDA rips. Don’t overthink it; just trade the reaction. We’re already in this one.

9. $TSLA (Tesla) – High Event Risk. With Retail Sales on Tuesday, any sign of consumer weakness hits auto-loans first. Premiums are rich; perfect for selling wide strangles.

10. $MSTR (MicroStrategy) – Bitcoin is chopping. MSTR is effectively a leveraged BTC ETF. If risk-off hits Tuesday (NFP), this falls faster than the coin itself.

11. $PLTR (Palantir) – The retail favorite. It ignores macro logic, but it loves liquidity. If rates drop on CPI, this flies to new highs.

12. $AMD (Adv. Micro Devices) – The beta to Nvidia’s alpha. If the semi sector rotates, AMD usually offers cleaner technical setups for day trades than the crowded NVDA.

13. $COIN (Coinbase) – Tethered to the crypto cycle, but also highly sensitive to risk appetite. A hot CPI print kills the risk trade, sending COIN lower.

14. $SMCI (Super Micro) – The wild card. Liquidity is drying up here. Only trade this if you need a pure volatility play; it’s a gambler’s proxy for AI server demand.

Category 3: Macro & Sector Hedges

The instruments that actually move the world

15. $TLT (20+ Yr Treasury) – The Most Important Ticker of the Week. With NFP (Tue) and CPI (Thu), bonds will be violent. If yields spike, everything else on this list turns red.

16. $SPY (S&P 500) – The baseline. If Tuesday’s Jobs report is too hot, expect a test of lower support immediately.

17. $QQQ (Nasdaq 100) – Rate sensitive. If CPI comes in hot on Thursday, the long duration trade (Tech) gets punished first.

18. $IWM (Russell 2000) – The reflation trade. If NFP is strong and CPI is cool (Soft Landing), small caps will outperform everything.

19. $GLD (Gold) – The hedge. If the data is messy (Stagflation), capital flees to Gold. Watch for a breakout if the Dollar ($DXY) weakens.

20. $XLE (Energy) – Geopolitical hedge. If the market ignores data and focuses on overseas tension, Energy is the only sector that stays green.

Execution Protocol:

This watchlist is just the raw feed. Before entering any positions, I run these names through my technical filter to confirm the setup.

📉 My Strategy: I use the Wilder’s MACD + EMA Setup to time my entries.

I am currently writing the full “Standard Operating Procedure” for this strategy to release next week. Subscribe now so you don’t miss the alert when the guide drops.

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• The Event: The final FOMC Rate Decision of 2025 (Wednesday) collides with a massive Earnings Week.

• The Risk: Markets are pricing in a cut. If Powell flinches, the Santa Rally dies.

• The Trade: Volatility (IV) is overpriced in specific pockets ($AVGO, $ORCL, $GME). We are sellers of fear, not buyers of hope.

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This is not a week for tourists.

We are facing the Liquidity Trifecta: A heavy-hitting Earnings Calendar (Broadcom, Costco, Oracle), the FOMC Interest Rate Decision on Wednesday, and the looming holiday volume drain.

The market is coiled. Bitcoin has cooled to ~$89k, Tech is consolidating, and the VIX is waking up. Most retail traders will chase the breakouts. We will do the opposite. We are looking for “Event Risk” premiums to sell against key technical support levels

Below is the CSP Lab Sunday Watchlist for the week of December 8 – December 12, 2025.

💀 Category 1: The Earnings Gauntlet

Stocks reporting this week with juiced Implied Volatility. The goal: Sell the “Fear of the Miss.”

1. Broadcom ($AVGO) Reporting Thursday, Dec 11 (PM)

Lab Logic: The most critical AI hardware print of Q4. Trading near $390, expectations are priced for perfection. If they beat without raising guidance, the stock fades.

• The Play: Look to sell OTM puts at the $350 support level to harvest the rich IV. If IV Rank > 50%, the premium is yours to keep

  

2. Costco ($COST) Reporting Thursday, Dec 11 (PM)

Lab Logic: The “Goldilocks” trade is expensive. Sitting at ~$895, Costco often “sells the news” unless they announce a fee hike.

• The Play: Fade any manic rally toward $920. If it flushes, the $850 level is where institutional bids sit. Sell Put Spreads there.

  

3. Oracle ($ORCL) Reporting Wednesday, Dec 10 (PM)

Lab Logic: Legacy cloud meets AI hype. Currently ~$217, well off the highs. This print is about the backlog.

• The Play: If they miss, $200 is the psychological floor. We prefer selling Put Spreads below $200. Let the theta decay pay you

  

4. Adobe ($ADBE) Reporting Wednesday, Dec 10 (PM)

Lab Logic: The market loves to hate Adobe on valuation. Fears of AI disruption keep premiums elevated.

• The Play: Classic “Iron Condor” candidate. The stock likely chops around the $370 (200-day MA). Don’t bet on direction; bet on stagnation.

5. Lululemon ($LULU) Reporting Thursday, Dec 11 (PM)

Lab Logic: Sentiment is in the gutter near $190. It’s a dangerous short but a great “fear” play.

• The Play: Selling puts at $160 offers a massive safety buffer (approx. 20% OTM). Even a “bad” report is likely priced in.

6. GameStop ($GME) Reporting Tuesday, Dec 9 (PM)

Lab Logic: Pure gambling liquidity. Fundamentals are irrelevant; IV crush is everything.

• The Play: Premiums will balloon Tuesday afternoon. Sell wide credit spreads to capture the inevitable crush when the stock moves less than the options market predicts.

7. Toll Brothers ($TOL) Reporting Tuesday, Dec 9 (AM)

Lab Logic: The canary in the coal mine for housing rates.

• The Play: Watch for a sympathy move in $XHB. If TOL guides down, the entire sector rolls over.

8. Chewy ($CHWY) Reporting Wednesday, Dec 10 (PM)

Lab Logic: The Roaring Kitty premium has evaporated. Now it’s just a low-margin e-commerce stock.

• The Play: Avoid naked exposure. Use defined risk spreads. The move is likely smaller than the market expects.

GET REAL-TIME TRADE ALERTS

⚡ Category 2: High Octane & Beta

The “Risk-On” proxies that will amplify the Fed Decision.

9. Nvidia ($NVDA)

Lab Logic: The Sympathy Trade. If $AVGO misses on Thursday, $NVDA dips. That is your buying opportunity. Do not front-run the news; let Broadcom set the table.

10. MicroStrategy ($MSTR)

Lab Logic: A leveraged Bitcoin proxy. With BTC hovering at $89,600 , MSTR is vulnerable.

• The Play: If BTC loses $88k, MSTR dumps. We are sellers of calls here unless BTC reclaims $95k.

11. Coinbase ($COIN)

Lab Logic: High beta to crypto volatility. A Dovish Fed sends this flying. A Hawkish Fed sends it to support.

• The Play: Range-bound income. Sell strangles outside the expected move.

12. Tesla ($TSLA)

Lab Logic: The wildest card in the deck. It tends to ignore macro logic, but loves cheap money.

• The Play: Sell Put Spreads at the 20-day Moving Average. The retail “Put Wall” usually holds.

13. Palantir ($PLTR)

Lab Logic: Retail favorite currently consolidating. It needs a catalyst (FOMC) to break the range.

• The Play: Perfect for income trading (selling volatility) until it breaks out of its current box.

14. ARM Holdings ($ARM)

Lab Logic: The lower-liquidity cousin to Nvidia.

• The Play: Watch the $AVGO print. If Broadcom mentions “Custom Silicon,” ARM catches a bid.

15. Amazon ($AMZN)

Lab Logic: The safe haven. With Costco reporting, AMZN is the stable anchor.

• The Play: If the post-Fed market gets choppy, sell puts on AMZN at the 50-day MA.

🛡️ Category 3: Macro & Sector Hedges

Instruments to trade the Fed Interest Rate Decision (Wednesday, 2:00 PM EST).

16. iShares 20+ Year Treasury ($TLT)

Lab Logic: The direct play on Powell.

• The Play: Wait for 2:30 PM EST. If Powell is dovish, TLT rips. If he is one and done, it tanks. Do not guess.

  

17. SPDR Gold Shares ($GLD)

Lab Logic: The inflation hedge.

• The Play: Long delta exposure here acts as portfolio insurance against a Policy Mistake (cutting rates while inflation simmers).

18. iShares Russell 2000 ($IWM)

Lab Logic: Small caps are desperate for a cut.

• The Play: The most sensitive chart to Wednesday’s news. A Hawkish Cut kills this ETF. A Dovish Cut sends it vertical.

19. Homebuilders ETF ($XHB)

Lab Logic: Paired with Toll Brothers ($TOL) earnings.

• The Play: The sector is technically overextended. If TOL misses, look to short $XHB via Bear Call Spreads.

20. Semiconductor ETF ($SMH)

Lab Logic: The Basket Approach.

• The Play: If you want AI exposure but fear the $AVGO single-stock gap risk, trade the ETF. It dampens the volatility.

The Final Protocol

You have the list. You have the logic. Now, execute the process.

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I hope you enjoyed the holiday downtime, because the market is waking up with a vengeance this week. We have a massive collision of SaaS earnings and critical labor data on Friday, volatility is back on the menu, and this list is how we capture it.

Market Context: The AI Hangover & Crypto Flush

The “AI Hangover” is real. We are seeing a violent rotation out of Tech and into Defensives. Bitcoin has flushed from $125k highs down to the $90k range, bringing extreme fear to the crypto complex. With the official NFP report delayed until mid-December, the market is flying blind on labor data, making Wednesday’s ADP report the single most critical macro event.

Category 1: The Earnings Gauntlet

High Implied Volatility (IV) events. We are looking to sell premium into the “Fear of the Miss.”

• $CRM (Salesforce) – Reporting Wednesday PM. The “AI Agent” narrative is being tested. If they guide down on capex, the entire software sector bleeds.

• $MRVL (Marvell) – Reporting Tuesday PM. High beta to the semiconductor weakness. Premiums are elevated; look for a “sell the news” reaction even on a beat.

• $SNOW (Snowflake) – Reporting Wednesday PM. Still trading at a rich multiple in a value-conscious market. A dangerous long; better for credit spreads.

• $CRWD (CrowdStrike) – Reporting Tuesday PM. Best-in-breed but priced for perfection. Any sign of slowing billings will be punished severely.

• $OKTA (Okta) – Reporting Tuesday PM. Often moves in sympathy with CRWD. Watch for the sympathy flush to sell puts at support.

• $MDB (MongoDB) – Reporting Monday PM. The “Canary in the Coal Mine” for the week. Weakness here sets a bearish tone for Wednesday’s software names.

• $AI (C3.ai) – Reporting Wednesday PM. The ticker is literally “AI”. A pure volatility play on the current “Bubble Burst” fear.

• $ULTA (Ulta Beauty) – Reporting Thursday PM. A key gauge of the consumer. Expecting volatility compression post-earnings; good candidate for Iron Condors.

• $KR (Kroger) – Reporting Thursday AM. A beneficiary of the defensive rotation. If they show strength, money will flow here from Tech.

• $DG (Dollar General) – Reporting Thursday AM. The ultimate “Consumer Stress” indicator. Weak guidance confirms the recession narrative.

• $DOCU (DocuSign) – Reporting Thursday PM. A pandemic legacy stock. Likely a short target if the broader cloud sector shows weakness earlier in the week.

  Don’t miss the trade updates on these earnings plays.

Category 2: High Octane & Beta

The “Crash” Proxies. These names are reacting to the Crypto flush and AI fears.

• $NVDA (Nvidia) – The center of the storm. The “Alphabet Rivalry” news is capping upside. Use the high premiums to sell OTM calls against resistance.

• $GOOGL (Alphabet) – The disruptor causing the anxiety. Watch for relative strength here as a hedge against NVDA weakness.

• $MSTR (MicroStrategy) – Bitcoin is testing $90k support. IV is nuclear. If BTC flushes, this is a “falling knife” , catch it only with defined-risk spreads.

• $COIN (Coinbase) – Trading in sympathy with the crypto pullback. The critical “line in the sand” is $250. If it breaks that support, we likely flush. If it holds, we are range-bound between $250–$300.

• $TSLA (Tesla) – Always a volatility staple. With the broad market VIX elevated, Tesla will offer massive intraday ranges for scalp trading.

  ---

Category 3: Macro & Sector Hedges

Instruments to trade the ADP data and Sector Rotation.

• $TLT (20+ Year Treasury) – The ADP Play. Since we have no NFP, if Wednesday’s ADP number is weak (bad for economy), yields drop and TLT flies.

• $XLP (Consumer Staples) – The “Safety Trade.” Smart money is hiding here while Tech sells off. Look for bullish continuation setups.

• $GLD (Gold) – With Bitcoin (”Digital Gold”) crashing, capital may rotate back into actual Gold as a geopolitical hedge.

• $XLE (Energy) – Oil is showing weakness on demand fears. A break of weekly support here signals a deeper global slowdown.

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At The CSP Lab, we look for asymmetry. MP Materials ($MP) fits the criteria perfectly. As the primary non-Chinese source of rare earth minerals in the Western hemisphere, it acts as a geopolitical hedge. If tensions with China rise, this stock becomes a national security asset. If tensions remain flat, the fundamental demand for EV magnets provides a valuation floor.

I am bullish on $MP long-term, but I didn’t want to just buy the stock at market price. I wanted to get paid to set my own entry.

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The Setup On November 10th, $MP was chopping around, but I was comfortable owning the stock if it dipped to $55. Instead of setting a limit order and waiting for free, I sold a Cash Secured Put.

• Ticker: $MP

• Strike Price: $55

• Expiration: Nov 21 (11 DTE)

• Premium Collected: $1.11 ($111 per contract)

• Collateral Locked: $5,500

By selling the $55 Put, I created a scenario where I win either way. If $MP falls below $55, I get assigned the shares I wanted, but my cost basis is reduced to $53.89. If $MP stays above $55, I keep the $111 as income.

The Chart Here is the view from the Lab on entry. We were leaning against clear support levels.

The Result We held the trade for 9 days. During that time, the stock chopped sideways and even dipped, but theta worked in our favor. By November 19th, the premium had collapsed from $1.11 down to $0.30.

We closed the trade early to free up capital and lock in the win.

• Entry: Sold @ $1.11

• Exit: Bought Back @ $0.30

• Net Profit: +$81 per contract

• Capture: 73% of max profit

I closed this early at 73% profit to free up capital. Would you have held to expiration to squeeze the last $0.30 out of it? Let me know in the comments.

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Lab Notes This trade illustrates the core philosophy of Return on Capital (ROC). Making $81 might sound small in isolation, but we locked up $5,500 to make that $81 in just 9 days. That is a 1.47% return in just over a week.

If you annualize that rate of return, you are beating the market by a wide margin, all without chasing all-time highs. We don’t guess direction; we sell the fear.

Last week we finally got the air pocket everyone kept calling for. $SPY dropped from the low 680s to 650 in a straight shot before bouncing. $QQQ slid from the low 620s to the 580 handle. $IWM broke 230 before squeezing back over 235. The tape feels nasty, but we are still only a few percent off the highs while the sentiment gauges are screaming panic. That combination is the whole story this week.

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🔹 See all Macroviews: https://csplab.substack.com/tag/macroview

Sentiment first: Fear and Greed

The Fear and Greed Index sits at 11, which is solidly Extreme Fear and one of the lowest readings of the year.

A week ago it was still in the Extreme Fear band in the low 20s and a month ago it sat in the high 20s, so emotion has ratcheted lower even as price is only down single digits from the peak. One year ago the same gauge was in Greed territory, near the mid 50s, with lower volatility and much less gold heat.

The AAII survey of individual investors backs this up. Latest numbers show:

• Bullish: about 33 percent

• Neutral: about 24 percent

• Bearish: about 44 percent

That puts the bull minus bear spread near minus 11 percent, well below the long run average that sits mildly positive. Retail is leaning cautious and there is real fatigue in the six month outlook.

On the volatility side, VIX trades near 23 to 26, the highest zone since the spring.

Put that together and you get a market that has pulled back, but not collapsed, while the emotion readings look like mid drawdown levels. That setup usually favors a tactical buy the dip rather than a fresh crash call, as long as the macro does not break.

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Trend check: where the charts stand

$SPY

• Close Friday: 659.03

• Last Friday: 671.93

• Off the recent high near 683 by about 3.5 to 4 percent

The daily uptrend from the summer is dented but not gone. Price flushed from the 680s to a low near 651 then snapped back into the high 650s. The 50 day area sits just overhead in the low 660s, with the 200 day much lower near the low 610s.

Key levels this week:

• Resistance: 666 to 672, then the prior high zone around 680 to 684

• First support: 650 to 652

• Bigger line in the sand: 644 to 646, which lines up with the prior breakout shelf and a cluster of moving averages

As long as 644 holds on a closing basis, this still looks like a sharp correction inside a larger uptrend. Lose that and the chart flips into a real top pattern.

P.S. If you want a breakdown of my favorite ticker next week leave a comment below.

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• Close Friday: around 592

• Last Friday: about 609

• Recent high: around 621 so still roughly 5 percent below the peak

Tech took the bigger hit. $QQQ saw a brutal two day selloff around earnings and macro headlines, knifing from above 610 to a low just under 581 before bouncing.

Key levels:

• Resistance: 598 to 600 first, then 610 to 612, then the old high area near 620

• Support: 580 to 583 as the first bounce zone, then 573 to 575 if fear spikes again

As long as 580 holds, this is a violent shakeout off the highs. A clean close back over 600 would tell you buyers are regaining control

$IWM

• Close Friday: about 236

• Last Friday: roughly 237 to 238

• Recent high: low 250s

Small caps broke first, then bounced hard. Price undercut 230, tagged the low 229s, and ripped back above 235. The 50 day sits overhead in the 240 to 242 zone.

Levels that matter:

• Resistance: 240 to 242 on the first test, then 244 to 246

• Support: 230 to 232, then the recent low near 229, then the more important shelf down near 225

$IWM needs to reclaim and hold above 241 to argue that breadth is ready to lead again. Until that happens, every bounce is still just repair work.

Macro backdrop: rates, dollar, gold, oil

This is not just an equity story. The cross asset picture gives the context.

• 10 year Treasury yield sits near 4.06 percent, down a touch from 4.14 percent a week ago.

• The US dollar index (DXY) hovers near 100.2, basically flat but firm.

• Gold trades around 4,060 to 4,080 per ounce, still near record highs.

• WTI crude sits just under 58 after a three session slide, its weakest area in months.

So you have:

• Yields slightly off the highs, not collapsing

• A firm but not surging dollar

• Gold screaming that people want hedge assets

• Oil trading like global growth expectations are getting clipped

That mix lines up with a late cycle, risk off wobble rather than a clean growth scare or a pure inflation scare.

The week ahead: what can move the tape

Holiday week, but not quiet. Some key prints were pushed into this week by the shutdown, so Tuesday and Wednesday are stacked. Markets are closed Thursday and have an early close Friday.

Tuesday Nov 25

• September Retail Sales

• Producer Price Index (PPI) and Core PPI

• S&P CoreLogic Case Shiller home price index

• Pending Home Sales

• Business Inventories

• Conference Board Consumer Confidence

This is the big macro day. Retail and PPI tell you about the consumer and inflation. Case Shiller and pending home sales show whether housing is bending or just plateauing. Confidence ties it together.

Wednesday Nov 26

• Initial and continuing jobless claims

• Durable goods orders

• Chicago PMI

• Fed Beige Book

All of these arrive in thin, pre holiday conditions. Claims will be read as a check on labor softness. Durable goods and PMI frame the manufacturing side that has already been struggling. The Beige Book will be combed for hints on wage pressure and demand.

Thursday and Friday

• Thursday: Thanksgiving holiday, no trading

• Friday: short session and a flood of Black Friday sales commentary, but no major scheduled data

The combination of compressed data and thin liquidity usually exaggerates the first reaction. Expect sloppy gaps and weird intraday ranges.

What the Street is saying

A few big themes from recent notes and surveys:

• Macro base case is still a soft landing. Most desks see slowing but not collapsing growth and expect gradual easing in 2026, even as odds of a December cut have faded.

• Positioning is bullish under the surface. The latest Bank of America fund manager survey shows equity exposure back near cycle highs and cash at about 3.7 percent, a level that has often flashed a medium term sell signal in the past.

• Narrative: AI bubble risk and rate cut doubt. Fund managers point to AI and overinvestment as the top tail risk while also worrying that the Fed may not deliver the rate help markets have priced in.

• Volatility signals are elevated but not at washout levels. VIX in the mid 20s, extreme readings on put call ratios, and a crush in breadth all argue for a short term reflex move, not necessarily a durable bottom yet.

• Gold and bonds hint at hedging, not outright panic. Gold at four thousand plus and a ten year that refuses to break under four percent suggest investors are buying insurance while still clinging to the soft landing view.

So the story is split. Fast sentiment gauges say fear. Positioning surveys say a lot of people are still leaning long risk and counting on the Fed to show up.

Wrapping it up

Neutral price location plus extreme fear is a sharp change from the summer regime where optimism and momentum fed each other. We are now in a corrective phase where data, not FOMO, will set the tone.

Base case for the next week or two

• $SPY holds the 650 shelf on closing basis and works back toward 666 to 672.

• $QQQ defends 580 and grinds back through 598 to 600, with a shot at 610 if data is friendly.

• $IWM respects 230 and slowly rebuilds toward 241 to 244.

• Fear gauges stay in the fear area but lift off the single digit readings as price stabilizes.

This path fits a messy, volatile range trade with a bullish tilt. Retail fear plus still supportive macro would invite systematic and dip buyers once the first reactions to PPI and retail sales pass.

Risk case

• PPI and retail come in hot on price or weak on demand, or both.

• The ten year pops back above 4.2 percent and the dollar pushes higher.

• $SPY breaks under 650 and trends toward 640 and the mid 630s.

• $QQQ loses 580 and tests the low 570s.

• $IWM slides under 230 and revisits the 225 zone.

In that world, extreme fear would be justified and we would treat the summer highs as a more important top.

For now, the evidence still supports respecting support first and fading fear spikes rather than chasing downside.

Trading bias

The combination of extreme sentiment and still intact higher timeframe trends is friendly for selling options, but the calendar and volatility argue for moderation. Size is the main risk lever.

When to sell

• Prefer red opens near support over green opens into resistance.

• Index focus: look for 650 to 652 on $SPY, 580 to 585 on $QQQ, and 230 to 232 on $IWM as the first zones where CSPs and put spreads make sense.

• Wait for the Tuesday data to hit before going full size. Let the first spike in VIX and price wash through.

Sizing

• Keep gross collateral in the 30 to 50 percent range early in the week.

• Add in thirds if price tags your support zones and sentiment stays washed out.

• Avoid pushing to max collateral into a short Friday session where liquidity can vanish quickly.

Strike selection and management

• Stick with 7 to 14 DTE on index CSPs and quality single names.

• Target strikes where you would be comfortable owning the underlying through a further 3 to 5 percent pullback.

• Take 50 to 70 percent profits with GTCs instead of trying to squeeze every cent in a noisy tape.

• If price closes under your short strike or delta climbs over about 0.35, plan to roll down and out one to two weeks for a net credit instead of turning it into a hope trade.

Assignment playbook

If you do get assigned:

• Sell covered calls 7 to 14 DTE around 0.30 to 0.35 delta.

• Focus on weekly ROC, not calling the exact top.

• If the trend improves and the macro picture stabilizes, roll calls up and out to protect shares while keeping premium flowing.

Using spreads in higher vol

If you want defined risk around the Tuesday and Wednesday releases:

• Short put verticals on $SPY or $QQQ with width set so that your credit is about one third of the spread.

• Place them slightly closer to the money than you would for naked CSPs since the risk is capped.

• Same rules on timing and taking profit.

Bottom line: indices are only a small step down from the highs while the sentiment dashboards are lit up like it is a full blown crash. That usually favors the patient seller of optionality who can keep size under control, respect the obvious levels, and let the macro prints do the talking before making big bets.

The charts say everything is fine. The internals say something is breaking

This is one of those weeks where the story does not match the mood. Indexes are still sitting near their upper ranges, but the tone of the market changed this week. High beta names got hit. Crypto rolled over. Volume rose on down days and faded on up days. The surface looks steady. The internals look stressed. This is the kind of week that keeps traders cautious even when the index charts look fine at first glance.

Let’s break it down.

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🔹 See all Macroviews: https://csplab.substack.com/tag/macroview

Sentiment

The Fear and Greed Index sits at 22 which is deep in Extreme Fear territory. Last week was 24. Nothing improved.

AAII sentiment shows 31.6 percent bulls, 19.2 percent neutral, and 49.1 percent bears. This is the most bearish skew of the past 4 weeks.

This negative sentiment is not linked to falling prices. It is tied to thin leadership, weak volume on green days, and rising volume on red days. When the market floats higher on low participation, the move is usually built more on short covering and passive flows than real buying.

That is the environment right now.

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Trend Check: $SPY $QQQ $IWM

Below is the updated price action combined with volume analysis. Volumes help confirm or reject trend and momentum. This week they matter a lot.

SPY

Daily
$SPY trades near 671 after rejecting the 685 to 690 band. It bounced off rising support in the mid-660s, but volume tells the truth. Volume increased during the drop from the highs and faded during the rebound. That is not strength. That is caution.

4-hour
$SPY remains stuck in a range between 665 and 685. Every touch of 680 gets sold. Volume spikes appear on red candles near the lower half of the range. Buyers show up, but without conviction.

QQQ

Daily
QQQ sits around 608 to 612 after pulling back from 635. The chart looks controlled, but high beta names inside the index got hit harder than the ETF shows. The bounce off 600 had light volume. No signs of strong demand.

4-hour
Sideways and choppy. Lower highs forming. Sellers lean on every test of the mid-range. A close under 600 would open more downside.

IWM

Daily
IWM remains the weakest of the big 3 index ETFs. It failed almost instantly at 250 and now trades near 237. Volume picked up during the selloff which confirms real rotation away from small caps. Rebound volume stayed light.

4-hour
Range remains 235 to 250, but price is pinned near the bottom. Volume spikes appear during selling, not buying. Until buyers push above 244, there is no confirmation of strength.

P.S. If you want a breakdown of my favorite ticker next week leave a comment below.

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Rates and Yield Curve

The 10-year sits near 4.2 percent.
The 2-year sits near 3.9 percent.
The spread is roughly +30 to 35 bps.

The curve spent an unusually long time inverted and is only now pushing back toward normal. Historically, this happens late in a cycle, not early. A steepening curve at this stage is not a comfort signal. It usually means slower growth ahead with cuts arriving late.

Dollar, Gold, Oil

Dollar:
The DXY trades around 100 to 101, noticeably softer compared with earlier in the year.

Gold:
Gold remains near record levels with spot prices just under 4100.

Oil:
Crude oil sits near 88 dollars, well off the triple digit spike but still elevated.

This is a typical late cycle mix. A softer dollar. Persistent strength in gold. Oil sitting high but no longer surging. Markets are flashing stress but not full danger.

Volatility and Breadth

VIX:
Around 24 to 25, above its long run average.

Breadth:
Only about 43 percent of S&P 500 names trade above their 50 day moving average. That number fell toward 40 percent during last week’s selloff. In simple terms, the index has held up but very few names are carrying it.

Narrow leadership is a warning sign, especially with volume patterns showing selling pressure under the surface.

Macro Data

This is where the shutdown fallout shows up.

Inflation (September):
CPI headline 3.0 percent
CPI core 3.1 percent
PCE headline 2.5 percent
PCE core 2.7 percent

The October prints never arrived because the government was shut down. Traders are flying half blind here. No fresh inflation. No new consumer spending data. No updated wage growth data.

GDPNow:
Early Q4 estimate is near 1.8 percent, down from prior quarters.

Jobs:
Jobless claims stay in the mid 200k range, steady but drifting higher.

The Fed

The Fed cut rates 25 basis points at the previous meeting. That was the first cut of this cycle. Officials keep repeating that the next steps depend entirely on data. But with delayed data, there is more guesswork involved.

Rate futures now price only about 30 percent odds of another cut in December.

The market is uncomfortable because the Fed is uncomfortable.

Earnings and Catalysts

Earnings season is almost done, but there is still one major event.

Nvidia reports Nov 19.
$NVDA has become a macro event. It drives the entire growth trade and sets the tone for tech. The guidance matters even more than the numbers.

Also worth attention in the next stretch:
$WMT, $TGT and other large retailers that show us how the consumer is holding up into the holidays.

On the economic side, the rescheduled CPI and PPI releases for October could hit at any moment, depending on when agencies finish clearing backlog.

This creates a rare environment. Traders know the next big print is coming, but nobody knows when.

The Playbook

Here is the high level read based on this week’s action.

1. Fear stays high while price holds up.
This combination usually leads to sharp moves once new data drops.

2. Volume patterns show weak buying and real selling.
Every index is bouncing off support on lower volume. That means the rallies are fragile.

3. Breadth is narrow and still shrinking.
Only a small handful of names are keeping indexes afloat.

4. Yield curve re-steepening is not a comfort sign.
It usually arrives late in a cycle.

5. Nvidia controls next week.
A strong earnings reaction could stabilize the entire growth complex. A weak reaction could trigger selling pressure that the weak breadth cannot absorb.