🚨Calm Before the Fed: Event Risk Piles Up🚨
Weekly Macroview and Game Plan – Sept 15
🔳 How last week’s Macroview played out
The playbook worked. We said the S&P had room to make fresh highs as long as 6500 held and buyers stepped up. SPY pressed to new records into the weekend. On the tech side QQQ finally cleared the 580 to 583 momentum gate and closed strong, opening the door for a run toward 590 to 600. Small caps carried the torch mid week tapping 240 before easing back but overall breadth stayed supportive. Importantly sentiment did not run hot. Fear and Greed stayed neutral so the rally was not fueled by froth. That balance sets the stage as we head into one of the heaviest event weeks of the quarter.
🔳 Sentiment first: Fear & Greed
The Fear and Greed Index sits at 54 Neutral. That is a small uptick from last week but nowhere near greed or euphoria. Neutral sentiment matters because it lowers the odds of a forced reversal and leaves room for catalysts to dictate direction. A strong CPI or dovish Fed could still push the gauge higher but for now the tape is not stretched. Neutral sentiment paired with rising indices is about as constructive as bulls could ask for heading into Fed week.
🔳 Trend check: where the charts stand
SPY: The S&P has extended to new highs while respecting its rising 50 day and intraday moving averages. The 6550 to 6560 zone is the line to monitor this week. Hold above and the uptrend continues. Lose it and dip buyers will likely defend 6500 and then 6450.
QQQ: Tech is back in charge. The breakout over 580 to 583 puts momentum squarely in play with 590 to 600 the natural target zone. On the downside 580 now flips to first support. Lose it and you risk a quick test of 575.
IWM: Small caps pushed to 240 before slipping but they have been quietly outperforming. Support sits at 236 to 237 with sturdier footing at 233 to 234. A sustained move over 241 would confirm breadth leadership and extend the rotation trade.
🔳 The week ahead: the catalysts that matter
This week is heavy with catalysts and most of them cluster around Wednesday and Friday.
FOMC (Sep 16 to 17): The centerpiece. Markets overwhelmingly expect a 25bp cut but a 50bp surprise remains on the table. The dot plot and Powells tone matter as much as the cut itself. Does he emphasize insurance or concern
Quad Witching (Sep 19): Options expirations bring volume spikes dealer hedging and intraday pinning. Expect whipsaw action around big strike levels.
Index mechanics (Sep 22): Robinhood ($HOOD) AppLovin ($APP) and Emcor ($EME) join the S&P 500. Passive flows and hedge adjustments can create short term volatility in these names and the broader tape.
With CPI and PPI behind us until October this week is more about policy and flows than fresh economic data.
🔳 What the Street is saying
Morgan Stanley (Wilson): Buy dips into the cutting cycle. He argues equities tend to perform well once cuts begin and small caps could be relative winners if the Fed moves ahead of the slowdown.
Goldman Sachs (Schiavone): Framing this as a September dip to buy with upside targets of 6700 to 6900 on the S&P if easing supports multiples.
Energy backdrop: Saudi Arabia is pressing OPEC+ to accelerate supply increases. That leans on crude prices short term which could soften headline CPI later but energy volatility is still a risk to risk assets week to week.
🔳 Wrapping it up
We are heading into one of the most event driven stretches of the year. Sentiment is neutral breadth is intact and the trend is still higher. But FOMC OPEX and index reshuffling all land within days which makes this week more about reaction than prediction.
Base case: A 25bp cut with Powell striking a data dependent tone → QQQ extends toward 590 to 600 SPY grinds higher as long as 6550 holds.
Risk case: Hawkish lean or cautionary Fed tone → quick shakeouts into SPY 6500 QQQ 580 IWM 236 before buyers test their conviction.
The first move after Powell is usually a head fake. Size accordingly respect the shelves and let the market show its hand before pressing bets.
🔳 Levels from the charts (for framing not prophecy)
SPY: 6550 to 6560 intraday shelf. Below that 6500 then 6450 as deeper support.
QQQ: 580 as pivot. 586 to 588 as the breakout zone. 590 to 600 is the upside target.
IWM: 236 to 237 as support. 240 to 241 as the breakout line.
🔳 Trading bias (CSP and short vol lens)
Neutral sentiment and stacked catalysts mean sizing is the lever. Selling puts below rising 50 day levels still works but keep exposure light into Fed week and OPEX. Expect the first move after Powell to be a head fake before the trend shows.