Extreme Fear Meets False Comfort: The Market’s Brief Bounce Before CPI
Macroview – November 10, 2025
A fast read on rates, the dollar, gold, and the levels on $SPY $QQQ $IWM this week.
Market Overview
This week began with full-blown risk-off sentiment.
The Fear and Greed Index dropped to 21, sitting deep in Extreme Fear territory after reading 35 a week ago. Breadth is poor, liquidity is thin, and traders are crowding into gold and cash.
$SPY closed Friday at 670.54, down from 682 the week before. $QQQ finished at 609.74, and $IWM at 241.09 after a weak bounce attempt.
Confidence has broken faster than yields. The Fed cut rates, but credit spreads are widening, oil has rolled over, and gold keeps climbing. That combination does not signal a soft landing.
The $VIX jumped to 29.9, confirming that fear is being priced in.
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Federal Reserve and Rates
The Fed’s 25 basis point cut from October 29 is already fading. The target range now stands at 3.75 to 4.00 percent with IOER at 3.90 percent. QT will officially end December 1.
On paper that should have been bullish, but the 2-year yield has crept to 3.99 percent, the 10-year sits near 4.10 percent, and the 30-year holds around 4.31 percent. The curve has re-steepened slightly, reflecting concerns over debt issuance rather than confidence in growth.
Investors are not eager to add duration. Treasury auctions this week, including the 3-year on Monday and TIPS on Thursday, will test demand before next week’s CPI.
The $DXY reclaimed strength, closing near 104.5. It is not a safe haven move, it is a liquidity squeeze.
Commodities and Crypto
Gold futures near 4,010 per ounce continued their breakout to new highs.
Markets are signaling disbelief that the inflation fight is over. Crude oil fell to 59.75, its lowest level since early summer, a warning about global demand. Energy equities have started to reflect this weakness.
Crypto has held up better than equities. Bitcoin trades around 101,000. The rotation into hard assets over paper ones remains a theme worth noting.
Earnings and Corporate Tone
Earnings season is winding down but still has a few names worth watching.
Cisco Systems ($CSCO) reports Wednesday. The Walt Disney Company ($DIS) follows Thursday morning. Applied Materials ($AMAT), JD.com ($JD), and Bilibili ($BILI) round out the list.
The key event is Nvidia ($NVDA) on November 19. That report will set the tone for the entire growth trade. Margins across most sectors remain tight and forward guidance has leaned cautious.
Macro Calendar
Monday, November 10: Treasury 3-year note auction (expected to proceed as scheduled under Treasury’s exempt operations)
Tuesday, November 11: Bond market closed for Veterans Day
Thursday, November 13: CPI (October) - postponed due to the ongoing federal government shutdown
Friday, November 14: PPI (October) - postponed until Bureau of Labor Statistics operations resume
Because the Bureau of Labor Statistics is part of the Department of Labor, it remains closed during the shutdown. All major releases including CPI, PPI, and Employment Situation reports are suspended until funding is restored.
Treasury operations tied to debt issuance and auctions are exempt and continue as normal. The delay in inflation data adds uncertainty to market positioning ahead of the next FOMC meeting, as traders are now relying on private estimates and inflation swap pricing instead of official government prints.
Technical Picture
$SPY broke 678 last week, tagged 661, then bounced to 672 into Friday. This is a retest of the broken trendline. Momentum is still negative with RSI near 45. Support sits at 665 and resistance near 680. A close below 665 points toward 650 to 652.
Reply with your top level on $SPY or $QQQ - I read every comment.
$QQQ stalled near 612 after touching 598 earlier in the week. The 4-hour chart is forming a bear flag under the 50-day. Watch 605 as a pivot. Below that, 595 is next.
$IWM continues to lag near 241. It has been rejected from this level several times and remains below the 50-day average. Until it clears 244, risk appetite stays limited.
Sentiment and Positioning
Fear has taken control.
Put and call ratios have risen to multi-month highs. ETF flows turned negative for the first time since August. Retail buying cooled sharply while institutional hedging increased into Friday.
Extreme fear rarely lasts long, but it does change the rhythm of the market. This environment rewards patience, not prediction.
Outlook
The Fed’s pivot failed to restore confidence.
The dollar is firm, gold is screaming, and yields will not fall. That mix signals tightening liquidity, not easing conditions.
$SPY between 665 and 680 is the key range this week. A move above 680 could squeeze to 690 if CPI cools, but the base case remains defensive.
If CPI comes in hot, expect $SPY to move toward 650 quickly.
This is a market for quick trades and light exposure until the data provides clarity.
CPI and PPI won't go out this week, but here are my Oct CPI estimates, which have been better than Wall Street 70% of the time:
https://open.substack.com/pub/arkominaresearch/p/oct-2025-cpi-estimate?r=1r1n6n&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=false