🚨 Jobs Week Collides With Quarter End 🚨
Weekly Macroview and Game Plan – Sept 28
From last week’s Macroview, the playbook held perfectly, which saved us from a ton of losses! We said SPY needed to stay above 6550 and QQQ momentum would extend as long as 580 held. That is what happened. SPY respected the shelf and pushed into the 660s. QQQ held above 590 and stayed bid. Small caps retested 236 early in the week, then regained ground to finish just under 241. Breadth remained constructive. Sentiment stayed neutral, meaning the advance was not driven by froth.
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Sentiment first: Fear & Greed
The Fear and Greed Index is 53 Neutral.
Last week: 62 Greed, so sentiment cooled into neutral while price held up.
Neutral lowers forced-reversion risk and lets this week’s data set direction. Cooling from Greed to Neutral with indices near highs supports a disciplined buy-the-dip mindset rather than chasing. It also means positioning is not crowded on either side, so catalysts can travel further before sentiment gets stretched. Importantly, this is not capitulation territory, so big squeeze fuel is limited until we see either a deeper pullback or a clear breakout that pulls the gauge toward Greed again.
Trend check: where the charts stand
SPY
Daily uptrend intact above the rising 50 day near 644. On the 4h chart price is consolidating in a 656 to 664 band with a visible shelf at 660 to 662. Hold that shelf and bulls can press for a retest of 664 to 666. Lose 660 and the next buy zones line up near 655 then 650, with the 50 day around 644 to 645 as deeper support.
Daily RSI sits in the mid-60s and ADX is trending higher with +DI over −DI, so trend quality is still positive while 4h momentum is only neutral and trying to curl.
QQQ
Structure remains bullish. The 586 to 588 breakout held and 590 to 592 is acting as the base on the 4h view. A push through 598 to 600 is the clean continuation trigger. If momentum fades, look for a quick check back to 590, then 586 as the bigger line in the sand.
Daily RSI near 67 and ADX in the high-20s keep leadership with tech, but intraday MACD is still working off a pullback.
IWM
Constructive but needs confirmation. Buyers defended 236 to 237 and price reclaimed 240. A 241 to 242 daily close would confirm breadth leadership and opens 244 to 245. Failure there likely means more chop back toward 239 to 240, then 236 and 233 to 234. The 50 day near 231 is rising and should be first major support on deeper dips.
The week ahead: the catalysts that matter
This is a data heavy, flowy week. Times are ET.
Pending Home Sales (Mon 10:00)
Housing momentum check. Soft print would reinforce disinflation and is usually equity friendly if yields ease.JOLTS Job Openings (Tue 10:00)
Labor demand gauge. Fewer openings = cooler wage pressure. A sharp drop tends to pull yields and the dollar lower and helps duration sensitive tech.Consumer Confidence (Tue 10:00)
Watch the labor differential and intentions to buy big-ticket items. Weakness would align with easing growth but can weigh on cyclicals.ADP Nonfarm Payrolls (Wed 8:15)
NFP preview. It is noisy, but a downside surprise would set the table for a friendlier Friday if bonds rally.ISM Manufacturing PMI (Wed 10:00)
New orders and prices paid are the tells. Below 50 with softer prices would support the soft-landing narrative.Weekly Jobless Claims (Thu 8:30)
A turn higher in continuing claims would confirm gradual loosening in the labor market.Nonfarm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate, Average Hourly Earnings (Fri 8:30)
The centerpiece. Cooler jobs and wages = easier financial conditions. Hot wages with strong jobs would pressure yields and keep 600 on QQQ harder to capture near term.ISM Services PMI (Fri 10:00)
Services drive the economy. A slip in new orders or prices paid would extend the disinflation tone; resilience keeps inflation risk alive.
Also on deck:
Fed speakers. Mon: Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack in the morning. Gov Stephen Miran at the Economic Club of New York at 12:00. NY Fed President John Williams moderated discussion at RIT at 1:30. Tue: Vice Chair Philip Jefferson at 6:00 and Gov Christopher Waller at 7:30. These are scheduled remarks, not policy meetings, but they can sway rate expectations ahead of Friday’s jobs data.
Month end and quarter end. Rebalancing flows hit Tuesday Sep 30. Expect positioning noise around the close.
No FOMC blackout this week. Next meeting is Oct 28 to 29. The blackout runs Oct 18 to Oct 30, so speakers are in-bounds now
Summary: Speakers early week plus quarter-end can add chop. Let bonds and the dollar confirm direction before pressing risk into Friday 8:30.
What the Street is saying
The base case is still a soft-landing glide path with gradual easing in Q4. Most desks prefer buy-the-dip while key shelves hold and earnings revisions do not roll over.
Labor is the swing factor. A cooler jobs print with tame Average Hourly Earnings supports lower yields and multiple expansion. Hot wages would pressure duration and make 600 on QQQ tougher near term.
Positioning is not crowded. Systematic exposure is mid-range, and discretionary funds are leaning long mega-cap quality while waiting for IWM to prove itself over 241.
Bonds lead the tape. A pull in the 10-year yield on weak data usually lifts tech and high-duration growth; stickier yields shift flows toward value, energy, and cash-flow compounders.
Energy volatility is a wild card. Softer crude eases headline inflation and helps the disinflation narrative; sharp spikes keep risk premia elevated.
The dollar matters. A cooler NFP often nudges DXY lower, which is a tailwind for global risk, commodities, and gold.
Wrapping it up
Neutral sentiment, steady breadth, and trends above rising 50 day averages keep the bull case intact. This week’s labor and ISM data plus month end flows add noise, so let key shelves decide.
Base case: SPY holds the 660 to 662 shelf and grinds toward 664 to 666. QQQ works toward 598 to 600. IWM confirms on a daily close over 241 and extends toward 244 to 245.
Risk case: Early data head fake fails. SPY loses 660 and checks 655 then 650 and the 50 day near 644. QQQ fades to 590 to 592. IWM slips to 239 to 240, then 236, with 233 to 234 as stronger support.
First move on big prints is usually a head fake. Wait for bonds and the dollar to confirm before pressing risk.
Trading bias (CSP and short vol lens)
Neutral sentiment and stacked data mean size is the lever. Keep collateral light early, add on red, and let shelves confirm.
When to sell
Prefer red mornings, IV pops, and tags of support. Use 7 to 14 DTE, farther OTM, assignment friendly strikes. If SPY holds 660 to 662 and QQQ holds 590, you can lean in a bit. If those levels break, wait for 655 on SPY or 586 to 590 on QQQ before adding.Sizing
Keep gross collateral about 35 to 55 percent into Thursday. Scale adds in thirds on weakness. Avoid being maxed out into Friday 8:30.Management
GTC profits at 50 to 70 percent. If price closes below your short strike or delta climbs above 0.35, roll down and out one to two weeks, keep credit positive. If the thesis breaks, close rather than hope.Assignment playbook
After assignment, sell covered calls 7 to 14 DTE around 0.30 to 0.35 delta. Target weekly ROC, not tops. If trend improves, roll calls up and out to preserve shares while keeping credit.Alternatives in higher vol
If you want defined risk around data, use short put verticals with one third the width as credit target. Same timing rules, smaller swings.Friday tactics
First move after NFP is often a head fake. Let bonds and the dollar choose direction. Best entries usually come after the opening range sets, not at 8:30.