🚀 Post-Fed, Round-Number Gravity 🚀
Weekly Macroview & Game Plan — Sept 22
How last week’s Macroview played out
From last weeks macroview:
✅We framed SPY’s 6,550–6,560 shelf as the line to defend - buyers did, and we printed fresh highs into the weekend.
✅QQQ cleared the 586–588 gate and tagged the 590–600 target zone.
✅IWM pushed through the 240/241 breakout and briefly probed 245 before cooling.
Net: trend intact, breadth improved, tech still leads.
Levels, timing, and bias all lined up. If you’ve been following our Macroview, you didn’t need to chase - you had the map before the move.
Lets get into this weeks plan!
Sentiment first: Fear & Greed
The gauge ticked up to 62 (Greed) from Neutral a week ago. Translation: tailwind, but less room for sloppy entries. Chasing into round numbers (SPY 6️⃣6️⃣5️⃣ / QQQ 6️⃣0️⃣0️⃣) is where traders donate. Let price come to your levels.
Trend check: where the charts stand
SPY
Structure: Higher highs/higher lows above the rising 50-DMA.
Immediate: 660–664 is an intraday shelf; 665–668 is resistance.
Support: 655–656 → 650 → 645 (deeper).
Bias: Grind/baselining is healthy as long as 655+ holds.
QQQ
Structure: Momentum extended; 600 = magnet + psychological lid.
Immediate: 596–600 resistance band; acceptance above opens 603–607.
Support: 593–595 → 586–588 pivot → 580 (fail-safe).
Bias: Prefer buys on backtests toward 593–595 or the 586–588 pivot rather than at 600.
IWM
Structure: Breakout above 241 with improving ADX - small caps adding breadth.
Immediate: 244–245 resistance; extension 248–250 if bids persist.
Support: 236–237 first; sturdier 233–234.
Bias: Pullbacks into 236–237 are buyable while 233+ holds.
The week ahead: catalysts that matter
S&P 500 adds (Mon): New names officially join the index, so funds that track the S&P must buy them (and sell the deletions). That forced flow can make Monday/Tuesday choppy, especially in the additions, which often pop first and then wobble. Net: noisy opens, wider spreads, fade the first spike rather than chase.
Flash PMIs & regional surveys (Mon–Wed): Quick health checks on business activity. After the Fed they’re second-tier, but they signal direction: services cooling + manufacturing stabilizing keeps the “soft-landing” story alive. A big downside surprise would hit cyclicals/small caps first.
Treasury auctions (Tue–Thu): The government sells 2s/5s/7s. If demand is weak, yields jump and mega-cap growth can slip for a few hours; strong demand eases yields and relieves pressure. Watch for intraday wobbles around auction times.
Durable Goods (Thu) & PCE inflation (Fri): Durables are a read on big-ticket orders, but PCE is the headliner - it’s the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge. Cooler core PCE supports the slow grind higher; a hot print invites a quick de-risk into support.
Quarter-end flows (next week): Rebalancing into Sept 30 can mute trend and “pin” prices near large option strikes. Translation: breakouts may stall; selling premium against clear shelves often works better than chasing strength.
What the Street is leaning toward
Positioning: After FOMC, volatility usually cools off. When that happens, options dealers often “pin” prices near the big round numbers - think QQQ 600 and SPY 665 - especially into PCE and quarter-end. Expect tighter, more mean-reverting tape around those lids.
Leadership: Tech is still carrying the flag, but the IWM breakout says rotation isn’t dead. That’s healthier breadth - more names participating, not just the usual mega-caps.
Playbook: Don’t chase the first push into 600/665. Higher-probability entries come on controlled pullbacks to known shelves (SPY 655–656, QQQ 593–595 / 586–588, IWM 236–237). Buy red, sell into strength, and let the pinning do some of the work.
Wrapping it up
Base case: Post-Fed digestion with a bullish lean. Expect SPY >655, QQQ ping-pong 595–602, and IWM building above 241. If PCE cools, the slow grind higher resumes.
Risk case: A rejection at the round numbers (SPY 665, QQQ 600) plus a firm PCE = fast, buyable shakeouts toward SPY 650 / QQQ 586–588 / IWM 236–237, where dip buyers likely show up.
Trader reminder: The first move after a catalyst is often a head-fake. Trade the second move, the confirmation.
Levels from the charts (for framing, not prophecy)
SPY: 660–664 intraday shelf; 665–668 R; 655, 650, 645 S.
QQQ: 600 lid; 603–607 ext; 593–595 S, then 586–588 pivot, 580 deeper.
IWM: 244–245 R; 248–250 ext; 236–237 S; 233–234 sturdier S.
Trading bias (CSP & short-vol lens)
Sizing: Greed is elevated and we’re parked under round-number lids. Keep position size as the main risk dial.
CSPs: Aim below clear shelves / rising 50-DMAs:
QQQ: under 586–588
IWM: ≥233–236
SPY: ≥650
Require ≥0.7–1.0% weekly ROC, if it doesn’t pay, skip.
Management: Take 50–70% early, especially on tags of QQQ 600 / SPY 665 or into Friday PCE. If assigned, wheel it with 20–30Δ covered calls near overhead resistance.
Timing: Add in tranches on controlled red or VWAP recaptures. Top off Thu to harvest weekend theta. Don’t force buys into Monday highs.
Bottom line. Respect the shelves, fade euphoria, and let the tape confirm before you press.