The Watchlist: Week of Dec 1, 2025
Earnings Gauntlet, NFP, and the Crypto Flush. 20 Tickers for the Week.
Welcome back to the trenches.
I hope you enjoyed the holiday downtime, because the market is waking up with a vengeance this week. We have a massive collision of SaaS earnings and critical labor data on Friday, volatility is back on the menu, and this list is how we capture it.
Market Context: The AI Hangover & Crypto Flush
The “AI Hangover” is real. We are seeing a violent rotation out of Tech and into Defensives. Bitcoin has flushed from $125k highs down to the $90k range, bringing extreme fear to the crypto complex. With the official NFP report delayed until mid-December, the market is flying blind on labor data, making Wednesday’s ADP report the single most critical macro event.
Category 1: The Earnings Gauntlet
High Implied Volatility (IV) events. We are looking to sell premium into the “Fear of the Miss.”
$CRM (Salesforce) – Reporting Wednesday PM. The “AI Agent” narrative is being tested. If they guide down on capex, the entire software sector bleeds.
$MRVL (Marvell) – Reporting Tuesday PM. High beta to the semiconductor weakness. Premiums are elevated; look for a “sell the news” reaction even on a beat.
$SNOW (Snowflake) – Reporting Wednesday PM. Still trading at a rich multiple in a value-conscious market. A dangerous long; better for credit spreads.
$CRWD (CrowdStrike) – Reporting Tuesday PM. Best-in-breed but priced for perfection. Any sign of slowing billings will be punished severely.
$OKTA (Okta) – Reporting Tuesday PM. Often moves in sympathy with CRWD. Watch for the sympathy flush to sell puts at support.
$MDB (MongoDB) – Reporting Monday PM. The “Canary in the Coal Mine” for the week. Weakness here sets a bearish tone for Wednesday’s software names.
$AI (C3.ai) – Reporting Wednesday PM. The ticker is literally “AI”. A pure volatility play on the current “Bubble Burst” fear.
$ULTA (Ulta Beauty) – Reporting Thursday PM. A key gauge of the consumer. Expecting volatility compression post-earnings; good candidate for Iron Condors.
$KR (Kroger) – Reporting Thursday AM. A beneficiary of the defensive rotation. If they show strength, money will flow here from Tech.
$DG (Dollar General) – Reporting Thursday AM. The ultimate “Consumer Stress” indicator. Weak guidance confirms the recession narrative.
$DOCU (DocuSign) – Reporting Thursday PM. A pandemic legacy stock. Likely a short target if the broader cloud sector shows weakness earlier in the week.
Category 2: High Octane & Beta
The “Crash” Proxies. These names are reacting to the Crypto flush and AI fears.
$NVDA (Nvidia) – The center of the storm. The “Alphabet Rivalry” news is capping upside. Use the high premiums to sell OTM calls against resistance.
$GOOGL (Alphabet) – The disruptor causing the anxiety. Watch for relative strength here as a hedge against NVDA weakness.
$MSTR (MicroStrategy) – Bitcoin is testing $90k support. IV is nuclear. If BTC flushes, this is a “falling knife” , catch it only with defined-risk spreads.
$COIN (Coinbase) – Trading in sympathy with the crypto pullback. The critical “line in the sand” is $250. If it breaks that support, we likely flush. If it holds, we are range-bound between $250–$300.
$TSLA (Tesla) – Always a volatility staple. With the broad market VIX elevated, Tesla will offer massive intraday ranges for scalp trading.
Category 3: Macro & Sector Hedges
Instruments to trade the ADP data and Sector Rotation.
$TLT (20+ Year Treasury) – The ADP Play. Since we have no NFP, if Wednesday’s ADP number is weak (bad for economy), yields drop and TLT flies.
$XLP (Consumer Staples) – The “Safety Trade.” Smart money is hiding here while Tech sells off. Look for bullish continuation setups.
$GLD (Gold) – With Bitcoin (”Digital Gold”) crashing, capital may rotate back into actual Gold as a geopolitical hedge.
$XLE (Energy) – Oil is showing weakness on demand fears. A break of weekly support here signals a deeper global slowdown.