Weekly Macroview and Game Plan
Week: 9/1/25
What matters this week and soon after
• Holiday shortened liquidity into Tuesday’s open
• Heavy data slate this week. ISM manufacturing and construction spending. JOLTS and the Fed Beige Book. ADP, productivity and unit labor costs, jobless claims, ISM services. Nonfarm payrolls on Friday
Source: https://unusualwhales.com/economic-calendar?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email
• CPI is next week and the FOMC decision is September 17
• Earnings that can tug on sentiment this week include ZS 0.00%↑ ASAN 0.00%↑ AI 0.00%↑ AVGO 0.00%↑ LULU 0.00%↑ DOCU 0.00%↑
Next week look at GME 0.00%↑ ADBE 0.00%↑ KR 0.00%↑
Implication for premium sellers
Event clustering raises gap risk. New short premium should be smaller than usual before the Thursday and Friday prints or opened after the data when direction and implied volatility are clearer.
Macro backdrop in one page
The market is top heavy. Roughly a third of SPY 0.00%↑ market cap sits in a handful of mega caps, so leadership breadth still matters. NVDA 0.00%↑ is the swing factor for momentum. If it perks back up the path higher opens. If it stalls, strength in AAPL 0.00%↑ and GOOGL 0.00%↑ can cushion the tape but the base case is a range.
Inflation is mixed. Goods inflation remains tame while services inflation stays sticky due to wage pressure in labor tight service categories. A persistent services pulse is the near term risk to multiples. Headlines around a potential budget fight into the October 1 fiscal year can add noise.
Rotation has a shot. Quality small caps that are less exposed to trade and geopolitics can work while mega caps pause. That shows up in IWM 0.00%↑ which is firmer than SPY 0.00%↑ and QQQ 0.00%↑ . The simplest read is range with dips supported and rallies sold until leadership broadens.
What do the charts say?
$SPY
Sideways is the base case this week. The primary uptrend is intact but momentum has cooled and breadth is narrow, so the index depends on a few mega caps to carry it. With CPI and NFP on deck, liquidity is choppy and gaps are likely. That mix argues for chop with a slight upward bias only if mega cap leadership stabilizes.
$QQQ
Sideways to slightly down. The larger trend is still up, but near term momentum is softer and the complex is more sensitive to $NVDA $AAPL and $MSFT stalling. Without a clear re acceleration from those names, dips are more probable than sustained pushes.
$IWM
Sideways to up. Small caps show better relative strength and participation, which supports a slow grind higher as long as financial conditions do not tighten abruptly. If yields stay contained and headline risk does not spike, $IWM can keep outperforming while the mega caps pause.
Summary
Expect a range driven week with $SPY chopping, $QQQ carrying a mild downside skew unless mega caps re ignite, and $IWM retaining a relative bid as rotation favors smaller names until the data resets the narrative.
Crypto
ETH remains the preferred crypto expression for now. The working plan is patience and adds only if ETH dips .
Bottom line
Base case is range with dips supported and rallies sold until leadership broadens. In that environment cash secured puts can work as long as strikes sit below real support and size respects the data calendar. Keep powder dry into Thursday and Friday, prioritize $IWM on controlled dips, and only lean harder if $SPY clears and holds 650 or if post data volatility gives you richer premia at your chosen levels.